15 Facts on Climate Change

I have collected all those 15 facts on Climate Change from the "South and Central Asia regional virtual consultation on youth perspectives on Rio +20" online discussion event.

1. Ethanol blending with gasoline has got acceptance all over the world which can substitute for petrol in transportation sector. Brazil uses pure ethanol in about 20 per cent of their vehicles and a 22 to 26 per cent ethanol-petrol blend in the rest of their vehicles. The United States and Australia use a 10 per cent ethanol blend. Ethanol is widely used in the United States and in Brazil, and together both are responsible for 89% of the world's ethanol fuel production in 2008. The use of 10% ethanol fuel is mandated in some U.S. states and cities.

In our country, N.O.C. is the only authorized department to import the required petroleum up to now. The annual demand for petrol is 12,41,69,370 liters which costs 9,93,35,49,600.Thus the government is spending billions of rupees every year for the import of petroleum. So it can be seen that more than 3% of the total economy of our country is going away to third country for petrol import which could have been used in some other development to solve the problem like unemployment, price hike as well to boost the national economy.

Carbon trade using ethanol in Kathmandu valley,

Since 19th century the issue of global warming due to emission of harmful gases like CO2 was raised but was not taken seriously at that time. But towards 1950 different experiments proved that the earth is getting warmer then atmospheric CO2 was measured and found that the quantity of CO2 is increasing every year rapidly. Till 1997 the quantity of CO2 in the air was found to be   7.4 billion ton and is expected to reach up to 20 billion by 2100 AD. The vehicles and the industries are the main cause behind the emissions of such gases. Developed countries are spending 50-200 dollars to reduce the emission of one ton of CO2. Developed countries of the world emit the CO2 in very large amount and the impact is not only found within the country but all over the World.

So Nepal can grab opportunity from carbon financing in fuel switching project like ethanol blending.

100% ethanol yields 75 gm of CO2 per km so 10% will yield 7.5 gm of CO2. Hence E10 i.e. 90% gasoline and 10% ethanol together will yield 214.5 gm of CO2 per km. In this way net reduction in CO2 per km= 230 - 214.5 = 15.5 gm. (Gonsalves, 2006)

Let’s have a look over the no of vehicles and bikes of Bagmati zone and how much CO2 can be saved using E10 gasohol as fuel.

·         No. of bikes = 4,40,000 (DOT, 2066/67)

·         Average distance run by a single bike/annum = 7,500 km (approximately)

·         Amount of CO2 reduced/km = 15.5 gm

·         Hence total amount of CO2 reduced/annum by these bikes = 4,40,000*7,500*15.5 gm

=(4,40,000*7,500*15.5)/106

= 51,150 tons

Now let’s apply the same thing for petrol operated vehicles i.e. microbus & cars:

·      No. of petrol operated vehicles = 56,875

·      Average distance run by a single vehicle/annum =15,000 km

·      Amount of CO2 reduced/km =15.5 gm

·      Hence total amount of CO2 reduced/annum = 56,875*15,000*15.5 gm

 = (56,875*15,000*15.5)/106 tons

 = 13,223 tons

So the total amount of CO2 reduced = 51,150 + 13,223 = 64,373 tons

Total amount that can be received as a result of carbon trading = 64,373*10$

                                                                                                     = $ 6,43,730

                                                                                                     = Rs. 4.50 Crore

The resulting amount can be used to enhance the production of ethanol.

Nepal can take advantage from carbon trading using 10% ethanol blended gasoline as it can

reduce almost 65,000 tons of CO2 in Kathmandu Valley alone to generate the revenue of Rs.4.5

Crore for the country every year.

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2. Nepal contributes about 0.025 percent of the gobal CO2 emission .Which is even very less than the 1 percent and almost equal to the zero .Further more the percapita carbondioxide emission is also 0.11 metric ton .

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3. A limit on the total amount of greenhouse gases to be emitted by the UK in between 2023 to

2027 has been proposed to cut Britain’s emissions by 50% from 1990 levels and highlighting the Government’s commitment to being the greenest government ever.

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4. Total energy consumption of Nepal is about 9.3 million tones of oil equivalent (401 million GJ), of which 87% were derived from traditional resources (biomass), 12% from commercial sources and less than 1% from the alternative sources (WECS 2008/09). If we considered the biomass as renewable energy resource, we are in the low carbon stage but the growing pressure in the forest and increasing trend of commercial sources major concern. If there is political stability and clear vision and interest in political leaders, we have the potential to go in the low carbon path for sustainable development and youth can play the major role.

Nepal's theoretical hydropower potential is estimated at about 83,000 MW, of which 42,000 MW is economically feasible. But the sad part is we are just being able to install 689.3 MW and producing less in dry season. The total electricity demand is 940 MW and due to the huge power deficit, people are suffering from load shading up to 16 hr/day.

The potential of producing biogas is about 1.9 million plants of which 1,000,000 plants are thought to be economically viable. Already 2,00,000 biogas plants installed in various districts of

Nepal and also biogas program is developed as the first CDM project in Nepal.

The commercial potential of wind power in Nepal is 3,000 MW (AEPC, 2008) but no any project to harvest it till now.

The average solar radiation varies from 3.6–6.2 kWh/m2/day, and the sun shines for about 300 days a year. The development of solar energy technology is thus reasonably favorable in many parts of the country (AEPC). Solar house systems are the best practices in many rural community of Nepal.

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5. The eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank is warmest years in the instrumental records of global surface temperature (since 1850). The 100 year linear warming trend (1906-2006) of 0.74 o C is larger than the corresponding trend of 0.6o C (1901 -2000).The linear warming trend over last 50 years from 1906to 2005 (0.13 o C per decades).

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6. The sanitation coverage of Nepal at 1990 was 6% followed by 43% in 2009. But, it is hard to get MGD target (53%) and national target as 100% by 2017 AD. Similarly, the accessibility drinking water at mountain area is very poor though national data showed 80% coverage, but only 21%-25% are in used.

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7. In the mid 1970’s the US educated economist from Bangladesh, Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus, then associated with University of Chittagong, observed that the conventional banks assuming that they were not creditworthy did not extend their credit schemes to the rural poor.

This situation led the poor to borrow the money from the moneylenders who turned them into slave labor with unbelievable loan conditions.  Realizing the dismal situation, he approached the poor people living in the village next to the university campus and noticed that how people suffered because they could not find tiny amounts of money to carry on with their livelihood activities. He assessed the situation of the people and came up with 42 names and found the total amount they needed was USD27. This revelation was an eye-opener for the economic professor who taught elegant theories of the economics and investing billions of dollars to overcome poverty, didn’t knew that his own people were suffering at his own backyard due to lack of few pennies not even dollar. Initially he gave money to the poor from his own pocket and soon became aware that it created positive ripple effect which brought happiness to the poor people. After much effort and after representing himself as the guarantor for those loans he convinced the bank at campus to provide the loan to the poor. Eventually, after few years of expansion of the micro financing program, the project finally converted into a formal bank named Grameen Bank in 1983.

The total sum of the loan disbursed by Grameen bank since its inception is USD 10.52 billion. Out of this, USD 9.32 billion has been repaid. During the past 12 months, from April ’10 to March’ 11, Grameen Bank disbursed USD 1428.81 million. Monthly average loan disbursement over past 12 month was USD 119.07 million. The loan recovery rate is more than 95%.

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8. Over 86% of Nepal’s population lives in rural areas, more specifically in 3,915 Village Development Committees (V.D.C.) Farming is the main occupation and non-farming opportunities are very rare so the emigration is inevitable in rural Nepal (Upadhyay, 2007)

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9. The article 4.10 of the UNFCCC states that "the Parties shall take full account of the specific needs and special situations of the least developed countries in their actions with regard to funding and transfer of technology."

Based on this statement, there are many funding mechanisms established within and outside the UNFCCC process. Within the UNFCCC process, Nepal is eligible to access finance from: the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF), and the Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto Protocol. However, there is not enough funding available at present in all of these programmes. For example, the LDCF is set up to address the needs of the 48 LDCs through the preparation and implementation of NAPAs. The total required fund for the implementation of NAPA in LDCs is more than US$ 2 billion but the total amount pledged in LDCF is US$ 262 million and deposited is US$ 219 (till October 2010). Nepal also prepared its NAPA and implementation of NAPA in Nepal only requires US$ 350 million but no funding yet to implement the projects.

The scenario is similar with other funds in UNFCCC process. The Copenhagen accord mentioned that the developed countries will provide US$ 10 million every year for 2010 to 12 and US$ 1 billion every year for 2012 to 2020. The COP 16, Cancun agreed to establish another fund "Green Climate Fund" but the countries like ours are struggling to get penny from it.

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10. According to a report, because of Climate Change "close to 150,000 Indian farmers committed suicide in nine years from 1997 to 2005" While farm suicides have occurred in many States, nearly two thirds of these deaths are concentrated in five States- Maharastra, Karnataka, AP, Madhya Pradesh and Kerala- where just a third of the country’s population lives."(The Hindu November 12 2007). National 15 Social Watch Coalition (NCWC), says that at least 11,387 farmers have committed suicide between 2001 and 2006. The number of farmers’ committing suicide was much higher during 1995- 2002, In Andhra Pradesh it was estimated that more than 3,000 farmers’ committed suicide- in fact, in Andhra Pradesh the beginning of suicide started during the late 1980s than in 1990s. The Christian Aid estimated that in 2004 2,115 farmers killed themselves, which comes to around 4,378 since 1998. There are others who estimated that between 1997 and January 2006, over 9,000 peasants took their lives due to the failure of cotton crops. In one case it is estimated that within one year (May 2004-September 2005) 2157 farmers’ committed suicide. In Maharashtra, the Vidharbha has become the centre of agrarian crisis- wherein the number of farmers committing suicide is much more. It is estimated that between June 2005 and May 2006 at least 500 farmers’ committed suicide in which majority of them are cotton growers. In fact, the Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research in Mumbai, which was commissioned to investigate into the rural crisis in Maharashtra in its report, “suicides of farmers in Maharashtra" pinpointed that the Suicide Mortality Rate (SMR) for the male farmers had increased by three folds from 17 per 1,00,000 in 1995 to 53 in 2004. This is four times more than the national average. The suicide is now reported from Rajasthan, Haryana, M.P, Gujarat and Kerala too.

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11. In case of Pakistan, where nearly one-quarter of the population is classified as poor (World

Resource Institute 2007), where Human Development Index is 0.539 and 74 percent population is living under $2 a day. Agriculture (predominantly depends on irrigation) contributes to 24 percent of the GDP and employs 46% population, where 68% population is rural which is directly or indirectly depends on agriculture, where industries and 80% exports are almost agro-based, where the forest cover is low (4.5%) while deforestation rate is 0.2- 0.4 % per annum, is among the 17 countries facing water shortages and is among the 36 countries having serious threat of food crisis (WB 2009). Pakistan is ranked 12th in the list of most vulnerable countries to climate change (Maplecroft 2007) Losing at least 5% of GDP each year (may be upto 20%). Climate Change is also taking place on the other hand. The GHG emission share is 0.43% of world’s total (135th ranking). Temperature rise has been recorded 0.6 to 1.0° since early 1900s

(IPCC 2007) while decrease in precipitation is recorded 10 to 15% over the last 40 years with

18-32% increases in rainfall in monsoon zone specially the sub-humid and humid areas (IPCC 2007). Other current climate change trends in Pakistan includes:

1. 0.5 – 0.7 % increase in solar radiation in southern half of country.

2. Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years and decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008).

3. 3-5% decrease in cloud cover in central Pakistan with increase hours in sunshine.

4. 3-5% increase in Evapotranspirative rate due to 0.9 Degrees increase in temperature expanding aridity outside monsoon zone and arid regions.

5. 17-64% departure of rainfall from normal during EL-Niño events (PMD 2010)

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12. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -  2001, reported that global temperatures are expected to rise between 1.4 and 5.8ºC by 2100.

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13. The Rio Earth Summit 1992 is the milestone in highlighting sustainable development globally with its outcomes as *Rio Declaration, Forest Principles, Convention on Biodiversity, Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Agenda 21*. Where do we stand in implementing agenda 21 and other outcomes of Rio as we already spent 20 years from the summit?

It is necessary answer.

The development plan of government of Nepal has set *COMBATING POVERTY*, one of the agenda from Agenda 21 as its main objective and aimed to bring down the number of those below poverty line. Since ninth plan (1997-2002) thepopulation which falls below poverty line decline from 42 % to 31%. However, Nepal is in 157th position of 164 countries worldwide with its per capita GDP of US$ 427 (World Bank 2009). 55% of the population lives on less than $1.25 per day and the new Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) measures 65%

of the population as multi-dimensionally poor. To implement the agenda *INTEGRATING ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT IN DECISION-MAKING*, Environmental Protection Council under the chair of prime minister has been formed in Nepal but the council is struggling even to have the regular meeting. Formulation of Environment Protection Act 1996 and EP Regulation 1997, which sets the legal framework for the integration of environmental issues into the development programmes is one of the major outcomes. It has also developed the guidelines for the EIA and IEE studies. There are some other policy documents as well but the efficiency of its implementation is not high and periodic amendments have very rarely occurred.

*CHANGING CONSUMPTION PATTERNS,* especially in energy is also one of the important agendas. Total energy consumption in the country has increased by about 2.4% annually and the growth of renewable energy consumption is highest with 15%. However, its share in total energy consumption is just 1%, where the share of traditional biomass resources is 87% and commercial energy resources are 12 % (WECS 2008/09). Import of only unleaded, EURO III standard and 300 ppm sulfur content petroleum is some good initiatives in Nepal but the developed world already reached to the EURO V and VI standard.

*DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS AND SUSTAINABILITY:* Total country population in 2001 was 23.2 million with annual growth rate of 2.25 % per annum where estimated population of the country in 2010 is 28.9 million with the growth rate of 1.47 % (CBS). Nepal placed in 164th position worldwide based on its average life expectancy, which is of 67 year (2009) and it was 54 in 1990 and just 43 in 1970 (UNICEF). Even though the urban population is only 17 %, the rate of urbanization is little high with 4.9% (2005-10 estimated).

*PROTECTING AND PROMOTING HUMAN HEALTH:* In general, the health status of the population in Nepal is still poor. Lack of potable water and sanitation, sufficient food supplies and medical facilities are the major contributing factors. Around 90 % of urban households and 80 % of rural households have access to drinking water but only about 37 % of urban households, and 20 %of rural households have access to sanitation and are using improved latrines (Health Survey, 2008). Still around 10,500 children’s below age of five are dying annually due to the water born diseases and people are losing their life due to epidemics.

Nepal is heavily struggling to implement the agenda.

COMBATING DEFORESTATION

*. The forest sector used to cover more than 45 percent area of the country according to the statistics of 1964. Forest and shrub cover in 1978/79 was about 42% which reduced to a level of

37% in 2005 with an annual deforestation rate of 0.5% (WECS 2009). According to government statistics, the year 2010 saw the worst deforestation in the last three decades with more than

80,000 hectares of forest cover.

For the *CONSERVATION OF BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY*, few efforts are made. Prime minister declares to extend the conservation area to 25 % from 20 % and forest cover to 40% through "Kalapatthar Declaration" in 2009. But the decline in forest cover due to habitat destruction, overgrazing and fire, commercial trade, illegal hunting and poaching, climate change have increased pressure on bio-diversity.

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14. The dates of 3-14 June 1992 remains one of most exciting landmark milestones in the environmental history of the planet. It was the time almost 19 years ago, when 172 governments, with 108 heads of state or government and some 2,400 representatives of non-governmental organizations gathered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to discuss on future of the planet earth. They were supported by another 17,000 people at the parallel NGO "Global Forum" with Consultative Status.  The event was the first ever United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) or the Rio Summit – the first major environment conference of the United Nations after the Stockholm Summit in 1972 and unanimously the most important environmental event until today.

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15. One villager who had three daughters, all married and staying with their respective husbands in nearby villages. The farmer would visit his daughters once a year. During one such visit he had the following experience:

His youngest daughter, married to a farmer, wanted her father to pray for timely rains such that they could have a bountiful harvest and prosper. Which father would not want his son-in-law to be prosperous?

Married to a washer man, the second daughter wished for more sunny days such that the clothes could dry in time for the couple to sustain their year-round income. Could the father wish well for his second daughter at the cost of her younger sibling? Hardly had the old man extricated himself from the predicament that the eldest daughter compounded the confusion further. Married to a potter, the eldest daughter expressed desire for more sunny days but without any decline of flow in the small rivulet flowing next door.

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The French Revolution 1789

Why was there a revolution in French in 1789 and nowhere else in Europe? It is true that there were national political rebellions in Belgium, Poland and Holland but all their attempts were still-born. It happens only in France Why?

Historians, being adept at reading backwards, have answered the question in different ways depending on their own prejudices or those of their contemporaries. But let us begin with a brief introduction to the French society of ancient regime, together with its government and institutions, which will serve as a curtain-raiser to the dramatic events that began to unfold in 1789.

The French society during the eighteen century was like a pyramid, whose apex was fulfilled by the Court and aristocracy, its centre by the ‘middle class’ or bourgeoisie, and its base by the ‘lower orders’ of peasants and urban tradesmen and craftsmen. So, the French social pyramid was riddled with contradictions both within and between its constituent parts. For it had monarchy that, although absolute in theory, carried within it the seeds of own decay; an aristocracy that though privileged and mostly wealthy, was deeply resentful of its long exclusion from office; bourgeoisie that, though enjoying increasing prosperity, was denied the social status and share in government commensurate with its wealth; and presents who were becoming more literate and independent, yet were still regarded as a general beast of burden, despised and over-taxed. Moreover, these conflicts and the tensions they engendered were becoming sharper as the century went on.

Looking from the base of pyramid, the presants were, in general, by no means as impoverished and unfree as they were in many other European countries of the day. By the end of ancient-regime, perhaps one in four peasant families owned their land outright, some were relatively prosperous, and others, true enough, ‘poor and miserable’. Half or more of the peasants were poor share crappers who owned no capital and shared their produce with their landlords on a fifty-fifty basis; and a quarter or more were landless labourers and cottagers working for wages and renting tiny plots. Again, on the positive side of the equation, fewer than one in twenty mainly on the noble and ecclesiastical estates in the east were serfs, though not fully tied to the land or deprived of royal justice. But, though his legal disabilities were less oppressive than in many other states, the French peasant bore a heavy burden of taxation: he paid tithe to the church; taille a direct tax on the income or land, Vingtieme a ‘twentieth’ tax an income, capitation a income tax per head and gabelle was a salt tax to the state; and to the lord of the manor, whether lay or ecclesiastical, he discharged a vary toll of obligations, services and payments ranging from the corvee (forced labour on the roads), or if not owning his land outright; he might have to pay for the use of his lords mill, wine-press or bakery. The heaviness of these burdens, varied greatly from one region to the next. But the problem arose, in the years of bad harvests and depression, they proved to be universally vexatious and intolerable, and this was to be a problem that grew more acute as the century went on – as were the grievances of the middle classes.

                          The mobility or aristocracy fell into two main groups: the nobility ‘of the sword’ and the ‘nobility’ of the robes’, formerly wealthy bourgeois who, from the seventeenth century on had acquired heredity deeds of nobility from their purchase of the offices, in the royal bureaucracy. This allowed them to take post as intendants, and gave them access to the Parlements – who in times of the weak and divided governments and idle or incompetual rulers, were able to exercise political authority by refusing to register government edicts. Such offices had, since Louis XIV’s (King 1643 – died 1715) time, been refused to the elder nobility as a punishment for the disruptive role they had played in the civil war in the late 1640s and early 1650s.

Though this older nobility continued to harbour resentments because of their exclusion from high office, they retained the privilege of occupying the senior army posts and, as owners of landed estates, exercising the rights of the old feudal lords of the manor: right of local justice and surveillance, rights of monopoly to hunt and maintain a mill, an oven or a wine-press. In addition, the members of the French nobility as a whole, whether of the ‘robe’ or the ‘sword’ enjoyed a considerable degree of freedom from direct taxation. The clergy, whose upper ranks belonged almost without exception to the nobility, enjoyed even greater financial privileges.

The degree of privileges enjoyed by the privileged classes, purely depended on the authority commanded by the king. In theory, France’s system of government was still the ‘absolute’ system that King Louis XIV had built at Versailles a century before. But under the sun king’s successors, that system had lost a great deal of its vigour and its ability to command the respect and loyalty of its subjects, whether privileged or not. Meanwhile, the middle classes became more resentful of the extravagance, inefficiencies and tyranny of a court and government to whose upkeep they contributed heavily but over which they had no control. Louis XVI, after his father’s long reign, was eager to bring about substantial reform in the administration to reduce the expenditure of the Court, the free trade of petty restrictions, to ease the tax burden of the peasants and to promote a measure of self-government by means of local assemblies in the provinces. However, well intentioned the monarch or honest and able him ministers were, so long as the privileged orders were left in possession of their powers through the Parlements and their influence at Court to abstract the operation.

And the French middle classes, for all their expanding prosperity had other grievances besides. Among them were the obstacles to the free exercise of trade and manufacture created by onerous internal tolls and duties. Another was their growing failure to realize social and political ambitions commensurate with their wealth. It had long been the aim of merchantmen and financiers, enriched by the banking, manufacture or commerce, to crown their carriers by the purchase of hereditary office of the state or commissions in the army. But the ‘aristocratic’ or ‘feudal’ Army Laws of France of 1781, debarred to the promotion to the rank of captain and above by the reservation for men of at least four ‘quarters’ of nobility, which excluded all commoners and those recently ennobled. It was not just matter of doors to preferment being progressively closed but of doors being closed at all, led them to believe that doors should be opened wider. The resentment and grievances were both genuine enough, and in history, as Tocqueville reminds us in The Ancient Regime and the French Revolution, it is often resentment that is the more important of the two.

The resentments and grievances of the peasants were also compounding during these latter years of the ancient regime. For one thing, the increasing peasant prosperity was never universal. While one in four of French peasants owned their land, the majority of these rural proprietors held tiny plots that, even in years of good harvest, were quite insufficient for their family’s needs. A more general cause for discontent was the recent tendency of landlords, nobles or bourgeois to revive old privileges attaching to the land and to impose new or added obligations to those already exacted from their peasants.

The crisis in France after 1778 hit the bulk of the peasantry both consumers and producers: as wine-growers, dairy-farmers and what growers found the general prosperity grinding to a halt. And on top of that, France entering in 1778 in support for American Revolutionary War. Thus peasants and urban workers were drawn together in a common bond of hostility to ancient regime. These classes therefore entered the Revolution in a context of increasing shortage and hardship rather than one of ‘prosperity’.

            But, of course, it needed more than economic hardship, social discontent and thwarted ambitions to make a revolution. To give cohesion to the discontent and aspirations of widely varying social classes there had to be some unifying body of ideas, a common vocabulary of hope and protest something, in short, like a common ‘revolutionary psychology’. As ideological preparation in the revolution, has been the worker of mass political parties but in eighteenth-century, France had no such parties until long after the Revolution started; nor did she have them when revolutions occurred again between 1830 and 1871. So the ground had to be prepared by other means: in the first instance by the writers of the Enlightenment who, as Burke and Tocqueville were noted, weakened the ideological defenses of the ancient regime. The ideas of Montesquieu, Voltaire, Rousseau and many others were widely disseminated and were absorbed by an eager reading public, both aristocratic and plebeian. Meanwhile, such terms as ‘citizen’, ‘nation’, ‘social contract’, ‘general will’ and the ‘rights of man’ –soon to be followed by ‘third estate’ – were entering into a common political vocabulary that became widely diffused. This was largely the work of the pamphleteers of 1788 and 1789, but, long before, the ground had been prepared by the tracts and remonstrance of the Parlement who, in their prolonged duel from the 1750’s on, with ministerial ‘despotism’, quoted freely and often discriminately from the writings of Montesquieu and Rousseau and other ‘philosophical’ critics of the day.

            However, its is easy with knowledge gained by hand sight, to see that revolution was close at hand, and still less to forestall the form that such a revolution would take. Yet, it still need a spark or trigger to cause explosion of any kind, and it needed a further spark to being about the particular alignment of 1789.

The first spark was provided by the French government’s individual with the revolution in America. It was not until 1783 after America war of Independence, that French minister of Finance, Calonne faced a deficit of a quarter of the nation’s annual revenue, declared a state of bankruptcy and called for drastic remedies to overcome it. So, the Notables’ ‘assembly’ was called, who however refused to endorse the ministral call for Notables immunities on the issue, instead they countered with a call for the Estates – General, representing all the three Estates but held in the abeyance for 175 years. The Ministry, however, turned this proposal down, thus provoking the ‘aristocratic revolt’ which tore the country apart for almost a year. The revolt ended with the defeat of the Ministry and a total victory for the Parlements and aristocracy. Above all, the government was forced to call the States General. So, in September 1788, as the Paris Parlement returned to the capital from enforced exile. So a brief in revolution, provoked by the nobility’s challenge, was already in the air, but the form that it look proved to be of quite a different kind. Why was this? Briefly, because the promise of a State General compelled the contending parties to define their aims and to take up new positions. The bourgeoisie, or Third Estate, hitherto divided into supporters and opponents of ministral reform, now found it expedient, once the States – General was called, to close ranks and present a programme of its own. The Parlements and nobility, however, voiced that the reforms they had in mind by no means the same as those voiced by the Third Estates or by the national large.

            In consequences, the aristocracy and clergy, far from gaining more recruits, began rapidly to lose them. Alignments changed after the Estates- General met at Versailles in May 1789. Although hesitant as ever, when faced with the irreconcilable claims of nobility and Third Estates Louis XVI chose to support the former. He called in troops to Versailles and prepared to dismissed the illegal National  Assembly by force of arms.

This coup was averted by the intervention of the people of Paris. The peasants, too stirred by the economic and political crisis, had began to take action of their own; and it was a combination of these forces – middle classes, urban craftsman, and peasants, now united in a common purpose – that with liberal – aristocratic and clerical support; in July – August 1789,  carried through the first major stage of the revolution in France.

The French Revolution appears, then to have been the outcome of both, long-term and short term factors, which arose from the social-political conditions of the ancient regime. The long-standing grievances of the peasants; townsmen and bourgeoisie; the frustrations of rising hopes among wealthy and ‘middling’ bourgeoisies and peasant; the insolvency and break down of government; a real feudal reaction; the claims and intransigence of a privileged aristocracy; the propagation of radical ides among wide sections of the people; a sharp economic and financial crisis; and the successive ‘triggers’ of state bankruptcy, aristocratic revolt and popular rebellion: these all played a part. Were there explosive factors peculiar to France? Taken individually or isolation, the answer must be no. If we compare it with other European countries, excluding the ultimate ‘triggers’, of France, other were worse in the degree of poverty at this time. Why then was there a revolution in France 1789 and nowhere else? The answer is that, for a variety of reasons, the factors which have been noted in the eighteenth century. France did not appear in a similar combination in any other part of Europe. Furthermore, there was also another factors that set France apart from Countries both east and west: Paris, even more than London, was a Capital city that lay at the very heart of public affairs: at the centre of government and administration of law culture and education.

            Louis XVI(1774-1793), the last of the rulers of the Old Regime was twenty years old and Queen , Maire Antoinette, but nineteenth century when they heard the death of Louis  XV, they both expressed the same thought, “How unhappy are we! We are too young to rule”, Louis XVI on May 5, 1789 opening the session of the States – General was the starting of a new chapter in the history of Revolution of Revolution of the world, with slogan, Liberty, Egalite, Fraternity.

How a married couple practically addressed pornography in their marriage.

Editor's note: A little over a month ago, John and Rachel Buckingham wrote two web articles for us about what pornography and sexual addiction had done to their marriage. You can read those articles here and here. Now, they check in and talk about the decision to fight for their marriage and practical steps they've taken to try to heal and forgive.

There are no shortcuts to overcoming sex addiction. There are no tricks, no secret formulas, no patches and no “get free of addiction quick” plans available for the low price of $19.95.

If there were, we would have been the first callers on the line.

There is only our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, our adoptive relationship with the Father. Without Him, our marriage would be in shambles; characterized by distrust, hurt and the ever-present sensation of horrible betrayal. Without Him, we would now be enemies and strangers, alienated from one another by John’s actions with little hope of true intimacy for years to come. With Him, we have found repentance, forgiveness and reconciliation.

We have found love.

John on making the decision

That is not to say starting out on the road to recovery has been easy, or that I have been suddenly cured of sexual addiction. On the contrary, the months following the confession of porn use to my wife, Rachel, have been marked by discomfort and sacrifice, and each day I find myself bombarded with the temptation to engage in and pursue adulterous thoughts and actions. Nevertheless, Rachel has chosen to forgive and trust me once again, and we have taken steps together to establish accountability and safeguards for me in order that we might make no provision for the flesh.

While situations and areas of weakness vary greatly between sex addicts, it remains true that we have willingly chosen to subject ourselves to the slavery of sexual sin. Whatever the reason, whatever the root of the matter, we have chosen this path for ourselves and we can—by the power of the blood of Jesus Christ—chose to leave that path. The choice is a difficult one, to be sure, but it is nonetheless a choice that cannot be made for us. We must choose to take action. I made my choice on the day that I confessed my porn use to Rachel.

Sin must be rooted out.

From that day, with the support of my wife and a few godly men, I have turned to distance myself from the insidious behemoth of sexual addiction. Together we have established a system of accountability via an Internet activity monitor and set up Internet filters with OpenDNS that not only block pornographic and sexually explicit websites but allow for the blacklisting of sites that, although not pornographic, present an opportunity for sin.

In addition, we have chosen to avoid the use of smart phones and have decided to forgo dedicated cable television and Internet access in our newest apartment. For our protection, only Rachel knows the passwords to her computer and to our filtering account. Furthermore, I meet with a mature brother in Christ who is also privy to my Internet browsing activity. Rachel and I avoid sexually explicit movies and television shows, and I choose to leave the room while my wife exercises each day with her Pilates workout video. While some of these things seem inconvenient, annoying, trivial or uncomfortable, the truth is that we’re barely scratching the surface.

It’s important to note here that overcoming sex addiction is neither easy nor simple, nor is it achieved by merely gritting one’s teeth, putting one’s back into it and trying just a little harder. Decisions, willpower, privation and a wife’s forgiveness alone cannot and will not free an addict from the burdening chains of addiction or sin any more than a rock can turn itself into a beach ball. If we are to genuinely triumph over the power of sin in our lives, we must seek the only One who ever has: Jesus Christ.

If any person has shown me a concrete example of Christ-like love, it has been Rachel. In the face of my adulterous behavior, Rachel chose to forgive and trust me. This choice was immensely difficult, but I’m so grateful she did, as my battle to overcome sex addiction would be exponentially more daunting without her love and support. Her genuine forgiveness is a reflection of the forgiveness that Christ offers us all, and opens the door to an intimacy I had feared would be lost forever.

Rachel on choosing forgiveness

At the same time as John was presented with the decision to turn from addiction, I was faced with a similar choice: forgive him for what he had done, or not? Before all of this happened, I used to think I would forgive anyone unconditionally, especially those close to me. But when he confessed, I was hurt more deeply than I had ever imagined possible. He had promised to love and cherish only me on our wedding day, and yet, after only four months of marriage, he had broken that very promise.

I didn’t know how to respond.

I knew I should forgive him, but there was a part of me that didn’t want to do so. I didn’t want to trust him, or even let him look at me, much less be vulnerable and open with him. I feared he would just betray me again.

So I prayed.

I wanted to forgive him, but I didn’t know how. What would true forgiveness look like? How would I act? Would I ever be able to fully trust him? I asked God many, many questions that night, and He responded. He told me I had two choices: I could be hurt, angry, bitter, closed off and never trust my husband again, or I could truly, wholeheartedly forgive him and trust that God had brought us together for a reason. God made it clear the first choice would result in further damage to our marriage, alienating us from each other and preventing reconciliation and healing from even beginning. The second, however, would allow God to begin healing the damage immediately. It would still be a process, but it wouldn’t be delayed or drag on.

But what did that choice mean?

It meant forgiving him. Trusting him again as if he had never betrayed me. It meant handing over my heart once again and letting go of all of the anger, hurt, and bitterness. It meant moving on and having honest conversations. It meant being vulnerable and open with him. It meant exposing myself to possible rejection. It meant being selfless and putting his needs above my desire for control or my pain, putting the good of our marriage above what I felt was good for me. It meant letting go of my right to get even. It would be extremely hard and would require sacrifice, but it would be worth it.

After a few days of deliberation and struggle, I chose to forgive him, and it was quite possibly the most difficult decision I have ever made. It required me to believe in him again, to trust him with my heart and give myself to him again. On that day, I chose to let him in and asked him to be open with me about his struggle so we could fight it alongside each other by working through the issues and deep wounds caused by his addiction.

I have never looked back.

Love and reconciliation

Once invited in, the spectre of sexual addiction never completely vacates, and the recovering sex addict should not expect the battle will fully be over while he remains on Earth. Just as an alcoholic might “fall off the wagon” with just one drink, it only takes a sex addict (recovering or no) one moment of weakness to find him- or herself knee deep in the swamp of sexual immorality. As such, we must always remain vigilant against sin, that we might protect ourselves against the sexual immorality that would cause so much pain and hurt. In the sexually supercharged American society, even an innocent walk down the street can prove to be dangerous.

Now, by the grace of God, we have been reconciled to each other, and He is working in our relationship as we seek Him together. His love and forgiveness is awesome and incredible, and we fall more in love each day. Intimacy has been restored to our relationship, but sex addiction no longer enslaves us. There are still hard days, fights and the sin of the flesh, but we are slaves to Christ, and the truth has set us free.

Because of what you did

For some days, I have waited
And held all my tears
But last night I let them flow
Because of what you did

I gave up
I find no hope in humanity
Because of what you did

I see no love in a heart
I look for the corruption
Because of what you did

I no longer care
I try not to feel
I try not to cry
You don’t deserve my tears
Because of what you did

At last the only thing that made me happy
You were what got me through each day
But because of what you did
I don’t know what to do

All that is left is tears
Tears that have been waiting to fall
Waiting for me to admit
That I miss your love
But you don’t deserve me
Because of what you did

I’m now lost
Alone without you or anyone else
You don’t deserve my tears
But I still cry for you
Because of what you did

Participatory Rural Appraisal and Its Challenges and Prospects

History of Valentine

The history of Valentine's Day — and its patron saint — is shrouded in mystery. But we do know that February has long been a month of romance. St. Valentine's Day, as we know it today, contains vestiges of both Christian and ancient Roman tradition. So, who was Saint Valentine and how did he become associated with this ancient rite? Today, the Catholic Church recognizes at least three different saints named Valentine or Valentinus, all of whom were martyred.

One legend contends that Valentine was a priest who served during the third century in Rome. When Emperor Claudius II decided that single men made better soldiers than those with wives and families, he outlawed marriage for young men — his crop of potential soldiers. Valentine, realizing the injustice of the decree, defied Claudius and continued to perform marriages for young lovers in secret. When Valentine's actions were discovered, Claudius ordered that he be put to death.

Other stories suggest that Valentine may have been killed for attempting to help Christians escape harsh Roman prisons where they were often beaten and tortured.

According to one legend, Valentine actually sent the first "valentine" greeting himself. While in prison, it is believed that Valentine fell in love with a young girl — who may have been his jailor's daughter — who visited him during his confinement. Before his death, it is alleged that he wrote her a letter, which he signed "From your Valentine," an expression that is still in use today. Although the truth behind the Valentine legends is murky, the stories certainly emphasize his appeal as a sympathetic, heroic, and, most importantly, romantic figure. It's no surprise that by the Middle Ages, Valentine was one of the most popular saints in England and France.

While some believe that Valentine's Day is celebrated in the middle of February to commemorate the anniversary of Valentine's death or burial — which probably occurred around 270 A.D — others claim that the Christian church may have decided to celebrate Valentine's feast day in the middle of February in an effort to "christianize" celebrations of the pagan Lupercalia festival. In ancient Rome, February was the official beginning of spring and was considered a time for purification. Houses were ritually cleansed by sweeping them out and then sprinkling salt and a type of wheat called spelt throughout their interiors. Lupercalia, which began at the ides of February, February 15, was a fertility festival dedicated to Faunus, the Roman god of agriculture, as well as to the Roman founders Romulus and Remus.

To begin the festival, members of the Luperci, an order of Roman priests, would gather at the sacred cave where the infants Romulus and Remus, the founders of Rome, were believed to have been cared for by a she-wolf or lupa. The priests would then sacrifice a goat, for fertility, and a dog, for purification.

The boys then sliced the goat's hide into strips, dipped them in the sacrificial blood and took to the streets, gently slapping both women and fields of crops with the goathide strips. Far from being fearful, Roman women welcomed being touched with the hides because it was believed the strips would make them more fertile in the coming year. Later in the day, according to legend, all the young women in the city would place their names in a big urn. The city's bachelors would then each choose a name out of the urn and become paired for the year with his chosen woman. These matches often ended in marriage. Pope Gelasius declared February 14 St. Valentine's Day around 498 A.D. The Roman "lottery" system for romantic pairing was deemed un-Christian and outlawed. Later, during the Middle Ages, it was commonly believed in France and England that February 14 was the beginning of birds' mating season, which added to the idea that the middle of February — Valentine's Day — should be a day for romance. The oldest known valentine still in existence today was a poem written by Charles, Duke of Orleans to his wife while he was imprisoned in the Tower of London following his capture at the Battle of Agincourt. The greeting, which was written in 1415, is part of the manuscript collection of the British Library in London, England. Several years later, it is believed that King Henry V hired a writer named John Lydgate to compose a valentine note to Catherine of Valois.

In Great Britain, Valentine's Day began to be popularly celebrated around the seventeenth century. By the middle of the eighteenth century, it was common for friends and lovers in all social classes to exchange small tokens of affection or handwritten notes. By the end of the century, printed cards began to replace written letters due to improvements in printing technology. Ready-made cards were an easy way for people to express their emotions in a time when direct expression of one's feelings was discouraged. Cheaper postage rates also contributed to an increase in the popularity of sending Valentine's Day greetings. Americans probably began exchanging hand-made valentines in the early 1700s. In the 1840s, Esther A. Howland began to sell the first mass-produced valentines in America.

According to the Greeting Card Association, an estimated one billion valentine cards are sent each year, making Valentine's Day the second largest card-sending holiday of the year. (An estimated 2.6 billion cards are sent for Christmas.)

Approximately 85 percent of all valentines are purchased by women. In addition to the United States, Valentine's Day is celebrated in Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, France, and Australia.

Valentine greetings were popular as far back as the Middle Ages (written Valentine's didn't begin to appear until after 1400), and the oldest known Valentine card is on display at the British Museum. The first commercial Valentine's Day greeting cards produced in the U.S. were created in the 1840s by Esther A. Howland. Howland, known as the Mother of the Valentine, made elaborate creations with real lace, ribbons and colorful pictures known as "scrap."

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